Online Guru Trader
From what I see on the e-mini S&P index futures, there are two likely scenarios that will happen but overall, both scenarios will likely point to a downward move. Therefore I am more slightly bearish at the markets at the moment.
The first scenario is that the index will stage a temporary upward move for the next few days due to the short term mood of the market being bullish. If it happens, it will try to test the immediate resistance level of 2105.25. If it breaks through that level then it may be a signal for it to move up further. However, I will look at it again if it happens to see if the short term mood is still bullish. I personally feel that it will not break through this resistance level (though it may test this level) due to the longer term mood of the market being bearish. So the likely scenario is that it may move up slightly and even test the resistance level but not break it and start to continue it’s downward move from then on and go towards testing the immediate support level of 2030.50. If it break through that, then there may be a chance that it will go toward testing the strong support set on 11th of february 2016 at 1802.50. I will analyse this here again when it happens.
The next scenario is that the index will continue to trend down from here (without even going up for the next few days) due to the longer term bearish mood of the market. And if it breaks through the immediate support level of 2030.50, it may move down even more to test the strong support that I mentioned earlier at 1802.50. The move to test 1802.50 if it happens, may take a month or two to materialise and in between this period, there may be short upward move as well.
Because of my view of how the two likely scenarios will map out (both scenarios to move down eventually), I am slightly bearish but personally for the immediate few days to a couple of weeks, I feel the markets will be more sideways due to the conflicting short term bullish and longer term bearish mood.
The e-mini S&P index futures as of last Friday close was 2042.50. I will update my outlook again on this blog after I see how the index moves from here and how the technicals reacts to the move.