Monthly Archives: May 2016

May 23

US stocks to monitor for trade 23/05/2016

By Online Guru Trader | Blog , Newsletter , Stock Trading , Trading Article

Here are the potential stocks to monitor for long trades.

Nike Inc Cl B (NKE)
Tesoro Corp (TSO)
Valero Energy Corp (VLO)

Here are the potential stocks to monitor for short trades.

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)
Bb&T Corp (BBT)
Citigroup (C)
E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Co (DD)
Exelon Corporation (EXC)
EOG Resources (EOG)
Fedex Corp (FDX)
Halliburton Co (HAL)
International Business Machines Corp (IBM)
Linear Technology Corp (LLTC)
Merck & Co (MRK)
Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW)

I will most likely try to get into NKE trade this week. The trades I posted on facebook on 10th May on DE, EXC and MAR are all in profit. In fact, DE has generated more than 300% profit based on risk to reward. EXC has touched 200% and MAR is also over 100%.

May 18

US$625 profit in less than an hour

By Online Guru Trader | Blog , Gallery , Trade Results , Trading

I was outside meeting with my friends. We were just hanging out and chatting. Then a topic which I totally don’t relate drags on and on so I decided to take out my laptop just to watch the market on the background while I listen to my friends talk about this topic. Then I saw a potential trade setup. And since I was outside, I decided to just do a small trade risking slightly more than US$100. The screenshot below tells what happened after that.

es trade 18 may2

So I took over US$600 in less than an hour and over 400% profit based on my risk. Looks like supper is on me. Back to my friends now. Finally they change topic.

May 18

EXC trade posted last week

By Online Guru Trader | News

Posted on this blog last week to monitor EXC to short on 10th May before U.S. market open at 930pm on that day. After that, I had a webinar with my students that evening before market open and told them to monitor this closely for a trade using my Trade To Win (T.T.W.) trading system. T.T.W. system triggered a trade entry that very day after market opened. Here is the current chart of EXC up to yesterday’s close.

EXC trade 18 may 2016 for public1

Most typical technical analyst will say that it is a double top formed and that’s why it is going down. But most people will also say that by the time the double bottom is confirmed, it is always a bit too late to trade it. And if it is still early to confirm to say that it is a double top, when people trade it, normally what happens after that is the double top is not formed and breaks the previous resistance to set a new high. And that is why most analyst are analyst and not professional traders. Analyst are paid to be right and justify it after it has already happened and most of the time the battle is already over. Here, being the trade has already moved.

Using T.T.W trading system, as you can see, it can go along side with double top analysis. The only difference is that there is confirmation and the confirmation is much earlier for a trade entry to minimize risk and to maximize returns. I don’t use double top or bottom analysis anymore but most of the time after I traded a security, I noticed a double top or bottom being formed afterwards. I also like to congratulate all those who traded this after following my post last week on 10th May especially my students as well. One of my students who have traded this is Joey when he posted on my facebook for students asking whether to hold or start taking profits this morning. Here is the screenshot of it and it really makes my day (even much more than making the money myself) seeing it.

EXC trade 18 may 2016 showing profits by students1

Keep it up Joey. Consistent income from trading is the way to go. Enjoy the trading journey ahead.

May 16

US Market outlook 16/05/2016

By Online Guru Trader | Newsletter , Trading , Trading Article

From what I see on the e-mini S&P index futures, there are two likely scenarios that will happen but overall, both scenarios will likely point to a downward move. Therefore I am more slightly bearish at the markets at the moment.

The first scenario is that the index will stage a temporary upward move for the next few days due to the short term mood of the market being bullish. If it happens, it will try to test the immediate resistance level of 2105.25. If it breaks through that level then it may be a signal for it to move up further. However, I will look at it again if it happens to see if the short term mood is still bullish. I personally feel that it will not break through this resistance level (though it may test this level) due to the longer term mood of the market being bearish. So the likely scenario is that it may move up slightly and even test the resistance level but not break it and start to continue it’s downward move from then on and go towards testing the immediate support level of 2030.50. If it break through that, then there may be a chance that it will go toward testing the strong support set on 11th of february 2016 at 1802.50. I will analyse this here again when it happens.

The next scenario is that the index will continue to trend down from here (without even going up for the next few days) due to the longer term bearish mood of the market. And if it breaks through the immediate support level of 2030.50, it may move down even more to test the strong support that I mentioned earlier at 1802.50. The move to test 1802.50 if it happens, may take a month or two to materialise and in between this period, there may be short upward move as well.

Because of my view of how the two likely scenarios will map out (both scenarios to move down eventually), I am slightly bearish but personally for the immediate few days to a couple of weeks, I feel the markets will be more sideways due to the conflicting short term bullish and longer term bearish mood.

The e-mini S&P index futures as of last Friday close was 2042.50. I will update my outlook again on this blog after I see how the index moves from here and how the technicals reacts to the move.

May 11

Is trading risky for you?

By Online Guru Trader | Blog , Newsletter , Trading Article

Risks comes from not knowing what you are doing
Quote from Warren Buffet

Sometimes, when I have talks sharing on trading, I would ask my participants whether they feel trading is risky. And most of them would say yes. Well, the reason why they feel that it is risky is because they do not know what they are doing when it comes to trading. It is the same with most areas of our lives as well.

Ask a established driver whether driving is risky, he will tell you that it is not risky because he knows what he is doing and he has been driving everyday for years with a record of zero accident. Others who have never driven before and do not know how to drive will feel driving is risky because they do not know what to do even if you put them behind the wheels. Ask a professional mountain climber whether mountain climbing is risky, and he would tell you that when it comes to mountain climbing it’s not risky because he knows what he is doing. Everything we humans do in life has risk but if we know what we are doing then it is not risky. This is especially true for trading. Trading will be risky if you do not know what you are doing. It will be safe if you know what you are doing.

Knowing what you are doing also means to be able to know all the possible scenarios that will happen in the future and be prepared and be able to handle it when any scenarios happens. A established driver would know how to react if the car in front of him makes an emergency brake because he has prepared and was mentally ready for it way before the incident happen. He would know how to react even if one of his tyres suddenly punctured on the road while he is driving. He was prepared and knows what he should do to react. He basically knows what he is doing when it comes to driving.

For trading, most people feels it’s risky because they do not even try to look at what they are getting into when they go into a trade. They always intend to go into a trade wanting to win that trade with lots of profits. That’s it. And they go into the trade after that without mapping out the possible scenarios that can happen. So when the trade goes against them and start to go into losses, they start to panic because they did not expect such scenario to happen and do not know what to do next. This few questions start to run through their mind. Should I buy more to average down? If I average down then at what price level should I average down? Or should I get out and cut my losses? If I want to get out and cut my losses then what is the price level to get out? Should I just hold on to the losses as it may rebound? How much losses am I able to take while I hold? What is the maximum losses I can take? Should I hold the trade till it reached the maximum losses I can take? All this should have been asked before putting a single cent at risk. Before even trading the security, all this should have been answered. A proper trading plan would have address this. All possible future scenarios that may happen and how to react to them should be in your trading plan. Below are some of the important items you need to have in your trading plan.

Before going into a trade, pre-determine beforehand,
(A) How much are you willing to lose in this trade such that if you lose that amount(in dollar terms), you will be totally fine with it?
(B) At what point should you cut loss? (This is the point or price level where you say to yourself that your analysis is wrong and you are willing to take limited losses to get out of the trade)
(C) What is the price level or entry point to go into the trade?
(D) How much shares or units should you commit into buying/selling to open this trade? (Once you have pre-determine A, B & C, you will have able to calculate D by using the difference between B & C and dividing the result by A)
(E) If the trade goes in your favor, at what price level are you going to get out with the profits?

Now ask yourself this, would you feel much safer if you do the above, have a trading plan before trading and would know beforehand how much you are going to lose if you lose. Know beforehand how much you are going to make if you win the trade. Would you be closer to knowing what you are doing in terms of trading? Would you feel trading is much safer if you did your plan? Most of my participants after my sharing with them walk out of my sharing session saying they feel much safer trading the markets from then on. It is important to to have a plan to map out all possible scenarios and also in that plan, how to deal with all the possible scenarios. Be prepared before it happens whether for good scenarios when you win or for bad scenarios when you lose. Once you are able to map it out in your trading plan and follow it. Trading will not be risky because you will know what you are doing and is prepared for all the possible scenarios that will happen and is ready to react if they do.

You know what most people out there do? Most people out there do not have a plan. They do not have a life plan let alone a trading plan. That is why most people who trade the markets lose money to the markets. I am not saying that if you have a trading plan you will succeed. But instead, I am saying if you have a correct trading plan and follow it through, you increase your chances of succeeding in trading by a lot. People ask me what if I don’t do that plan. Well, you just increased your chances of failure pertaining to trading. That’s all. I will leave you with a quote I like and benefited a lot in my life and in trading as well which I feel applies to life and particularly to trading as well. I hope you will benefit from it like I do. You may have heard it before but didn’t react to it much back then. I hope it does now after reading my sharing here.

If you fail to plan, you are planning to fail.
Quote from Benjamin Franklin

Cheers and enjoy, Wishing you consistent income from trading.